Oil prices surged 6.3% on Monday, to close to $85 a barrel on the global market, after a group of Saudi-led producers said they’ll reduce production by a million barrels a day starting in May. That’s another fist bump to the stomach from President Biden’s admirers in Riyadh, and it’s a warning to Democrats in the U.S. of how vulnerable they are to oil producers abroad.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia already cut oil production by two million barrels a day in October. Monday’s additional reduction took markets by surprise, as the price surge suggests. If it continues, it will complicate decisions by the Federal Reserve and other central bankers trying to get inflation under control.

Not too long ago, before Joe Biden became President, the U.S. produced enough oil to be a price setter in the global market. But Mr. Biden unleashed an assault on U.S. fossil-fuel production that includes permit delays and regulatory hostility that have reduced the incentive to invest in more wells.

Mr. Biden finally approved the Willow project in Alaska last month, though that won’t help in the near term. Mr. Biden tried to reduce prices by tapping the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but he doesn’t have too many political tricks left.

Regarding oil prices, Mr. Biden and his party are now hostage to fortune as an election year approaches. A global recession would reduce demand and prices, but that has its own political risks. But if demand and prices surge, consumers paying more to fill up the SUV or truck won’t be happy.

As it happens, House Republicans are offering Democrats a lifeline in the form of H.R.1, the energy bill they passed last week. Mr. Biden is promising a veto, and Democrats may want to filibuster in the Senate. But the better part of political prudence would be to work out a Senate compromise. It’s unwise to count on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

— Wall Street Journal