ST. PAUL — Brown County recorded its first death from COVID-19 on Friday, one of seven new deaths statewide, according to Minnesota Department of Health figures.

The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) updated COVID-19 data Friday and released modeling data to predict the peak of COVID-19 infections in the state.

During the daily conference call with the media, Minnesota Commissioner of Health Jan Malcolm said that globally the total cases were over 1.6 million and 96,000 deaths. In the United States, over 466,000 confirmed cases with just under 17,000 deaths. In Minnesota, 1,336 confirmed cases. This is an increase of 94 from Thursday.

Malcolm said this is a steady rate of growth each day with doubling time every eight days.

There were seven COVID-19 deaths reported in Minnesota on Thursday. One of the deceased was a resident of Brown County. Minnesota’s total death rate from COVID-19 is now 57.

Brown County Public Health had no details to add in regard to the Brown County death on Friday.

Before Friday’s conference call, MDH released a series of models on the growth and peak of COVID-19. The data is available at the state’s website https://mn.gov/covid19/data/modeling.jsp

The model predicts when the most people will get COVID-19, how many people will get it, and when more people will need ICU care than the number of ICU beds available. The overall information in the model suggested flattening the curve of the pandemic would require long-term social distancing.

Four different models were created based on the level of social distancing and the extension of stay at home orders. The first three models gave infection peaks and mortality rates based on stay at home orders being lifted in April. These models predicted an earlier peak, but a higher mortality rate.

The fourth scenario model has data based on the order being lifted on May 8, with further social distancing required until June and vulnerable people remaining at home through the summer months. The model defines vulnerable populations as those over 60 or with chronic illnesses. This scenario had the predicted peak in COVID-19 cases on July 13. The mortality rate was estimated at 22,000.

The health officials said the modeling was not intended to predict specific death totals, but to help with the decision making process concerning the pandemic. The numbers could change based on other variables.

State Health Economist Stefan Gildemeister said the model numbers were based on current data, but was not designed to predict what would happen if infection hotspots were to occur in the state.

Infection Disease Director Kris Ehresmann said there has been more COVID-19 activity in congregate care settings, but the state has prioritized testing these locations because of the higher risk of complications.

“We are focusing on that population and that is skewing our data,” she said. “That does not mean there isn’t transmission happening in the community.”

Brown County Public Health did say that an outbreak of COVID-19 has occurred in a congregate housing facility in Brown County.

An outbreak in these settings can be identified as one or more laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in either staff or residents.

MDH is conducting contact investigations for all lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases. Residents of congregate living facilities who have been identified as having been exposed are being isolated to prevent further spread of disease in these care settings. These contacts will be monitored by nursing staff and also MDH for fever and changes in respiratory symptoms for 14 days.

Of the 57 COVID-19 deaths reported in Minnesota, 36 were from congregate care settings. Of the seven most recent deaths, five were patients in long-term care facilities.

Gildemeister said MDH originally estimated they were identifying roughly 12% of COVID-19 cases through testing, but as more data came in the epidemic was found to be more widespread. He said we’re closer to an identification rate of 1%.

“If you multiply the number of confirmed cases by 100, we get closer to what we expected the actual number of cases are in the community,” he said.

Another factor in the MDH modeling was the availability of ICU beds. Gildemeister said if those in the ICU need a machine to help them breath, but none is available the mortality rate increases. As the number of available ICU beds rises the overall mortality rate decreases.

The latest figures assume 2,200 ICU beds in the state.

Malcolm encouraged individuals who are able to make cloth face masks to do so. She said masks can be helpful in protecting each other.

“If I wear a mask I am not doing that to protect myself, I am doing that to protect you from me in case I have the infection,” Malcolm said.

Malcolm added that the cloth masks were not medical grade equipment or personal protective equipment as this equipment was being preserved for those doing direct patient care.

Additional information regarding COVID-19 can be found on the CDC and MDH websites:

https://www.cdc.gove/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

Minnesota Department of Health

http://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/index.html