Haley in race first could be advantage
Other Editors
Former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley made it official this past week: She is seeking the GOP nomination for president.
The announcement, not surprisingly, met with enthusiasm in her hometown (Bamberg, S.C.), where Mayor Nancy Foster said, “We think it’s wonderful. She’s a native of Bamberg and we’re just excited that she’s thinking about running.”
First and foremost, Haley is stepping out front to challenge former President Donald Trump, for whom she served as United Nations ambassador. Trump has made it clear he is running and the real drama is waiting to see how many Republicans will step forward to oppose him.
In becoming the first, Haley grabs a lot of attention that she otherwise may not have received entering the race after others, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Haley will be looking to find a base of support outside the Trump loyalists. The only prospective candidate seen as a real threat to cut into Trump’s base is DeSantis.
For his part, Trump, at least at this stage, is acting like a frontrunner. He is not engaging in attacks that were his signature in the 2016 campaign and so often since. The fact is, Trump needs more than his base to win the presidency. Alienating moderate Republicans and independents in a divisive primary could prove fatal later and even be problematic in becoming the Republican standard-bearer.
Some will say Haley is in the race to get the nod for vice president. While that is likely not her thinking just now, the possibilities are very real, particularly if Trump is not the nominee. Haley is a minority female with potentially a lot of appeal that a conservative Republican – such as DeSantis – would need to win the presidency.
The Haley candidacy furthers the importance of South Carolina’s early presidential primary in February 2024. The Palmetto State has frequently served as a kingmaker in the nomination process.
Haley could be expected to do very well in her home state — and certainly could. But Trump enjoys a lot of support here among Republicans, not the least of them being Gov. Henry McMaster.
And then there is Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Scott. If he gets in the race, as expected, all bets are off on what South Carolina voters will do two years from now.
A lot could depend on South Carolinians exercising their right to choose a primary in which to vote. Legally every voter in the state is an independent, able to vote in a GOP primary at one election and a Democratic one in the next.
Democrats are going to be voting early in 2024 also. Interest there will depend a lot on what President Joe Biden does in 2024 and whether opposition emerges. If Biden is a lock, then look for turnout in the GOP primary to be heavy and the outcome unpredictable.
Polling in South Carolina and elsewhere has shown that voters would like alternatives to Trump and Biden. Haley has taken a bold step in giving Republicans just that. As much as she is not likely to be the last in the ring, being first could have its advantages.
— (Orangeburg, South Carolina) Times and Democrat
