NEW YORK — Inflation is painfully high, but this hopefully is close to as bad as it gets.

Consumer prices rose 6.8% for the 12 months ending in November, a 39-year high. Many economists expect inflation to remain near this level a few more months but to then moderate through 2022 for a variety of reasons. And they don’t see a repeat of the 1970s or early 1980s, when inflation ran above 10% for frighteningly long stretches.

Households could even see relief in some areas within weeks. Prices have dropped on global markets for crude oil and natural gas, which is filtering into lower prices at the pump and for home heating. That should keep inflation somewhat in check, even if prices keep rising elsewhere in the economy.

To be sure, economists say inflation will likely stay higher than it was before the pandemic, even after it eases through 2022. More often than not in the last 10 years, inflation was below 2%, and it even scraped below zero during parts of 2015. The bigger danger then was too-low inflation, which can also lead to a weak economy.

“This is not going to be an easy fix,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Just because inflation will eventually moderate doesn’t mean that prices are going to go down. They’re up. We’re just lowering the rate of change, not the level of prices.”

Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise, expects inflation to peak at 7.1% in December and January, for example. After that, he expects the inflation rate to fall toward 4% by the summer and below 3% by the end of the year, but to stay above 2% through 2023.

One reason for the moderation, he said, is improving supply chains. They had become ensnarled when the global economy suddenly returned to life following its brief shutdown, and economists hope increasing availability of everything from computer chips to shipping containers will help inflation to ease.

“It’s in no one’s interests to have the supply chain as disruptive as it has been,” Price said.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve. Wall Street expects the Fed to say this upcoming week that it will accelerate its exit from a monthly bond-buying program meant to support the economy. That would open the door for it to begin raising short-term interest rates.

Both the bond buying and low rates are intended to spur borrowing, which gets people and companies to buy more things. That can help drive inflation higher, as demand outstrips supply.

The U.S. government will also potentially offer less aid to households in 2022, whether that’s through child tax credit payments or beefed-up unemployment benefits. That could also lead to fewer purchases by Americans, further lessening the pressure on inflation.

Most immediately, Americans should see swings in inflation via energy costs.

A gallon of regular gasoline has fallen about 2.4% over the last month, to a little less than $3.35 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA. That’s progress, though drivers are still paying far higher prices than last year, when a gallon of regular was only $2.16.