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What’s Going On: Betting on the next president

Each year at this time, two of America’s favorite past-times collide: baseball and betting.

Monday night, Villanova beat Michigan to win the NCAA Men’s basketball championship, ending a three-week tournament that carries the distinction of having more “amateur” wagers associated with it than any other single sporting event.

Not even the Super Bowl can approach the number of Americans who fill out the 64-team brackets, typically in “office” pools with the allure of winning possibly up to a couple hundred bucks, depending on how many people chip in $5 to “compete.”

And as the college basketball season winds down, the major league baseball season is just starting. And while not nearly as popular with casual bettors, its not for a lack of opportunity.

As with all things sports, you can bet on anything in baseball, ranging from who hits the most home runs in the season to who wins the World Series.

This year, if you’re brave enough to bet $100 the Twins win the World Series, the payoff is a hefty $3,300. The same bet gets you $1,800 if they make the World Series and $400 if they win their division (the Indians are the favorite).

But someone who wanted to get rich quick, or at least in six months, could take the two long shots to make the Series: The Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers. If BOTH of those teams made the Series, a $100 bet would pay off at an astounding $1.25 million.

Those kinds of “futures” bets are available in all sports, including football where your beloved Vikings are 10-1 underdogs to win the Super Bowl (Patriots are the favorite).

The most interesting futures bets, though, don’t involve any sport, at least not the typical sport. They involve the 2020 U.S. Presidential election.

Today, a $100 bet on Donald Trump winning a second term pays a modest $175. Conversely, you have to bet $240 to win $100 that someone other than Donald Trump wins.

And that’s where the fun really begins.

The odds-on favorites, after Trump, to win the presidential election are both, not surprisingly, Democrats: Senators Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders.

They are both 12-1 underdogs to win the election ($100 pays $1,200). Other top Democrats include Elizabeth Warren (14-1), Joe Biden (16-1) and Kristen Gillibrand (20-1). For the record, Michelle Obama checks in at 33-1 while Hillary Clinton is a longshot at 66-1.

How much of a longshot? If you recall, the odds are TWICE as good the Twins win the World Series than Hillary Clinton being president in 2020. Not just make it. Win it. So yeah, Hillary doesn’t look like a front runner in 2020.

On the Republican side, Mike Pence obviously is the odds-on favorite at 14-1 if Trump doesn’t get re-elected. After that, it gets really interesting as talk show host Ben Shapiro is the third most likely Republican to get elected with odds of 33-1, or the same as the Twins winning it all. Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio both sit at Hillary’s level with 66-1 odds they get elected.

Another favorite “outlier” other than Shapiro is Oprah Winfrey. She’s considered more of a favorite than Shapiro at 25-1 odds of becoming president.

However, those two certainly aren’t the only non-traditional candidates who could follow our current president’s footsteps to the Oval Office.

Actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is a 40-1 candidate, with Facebook CEO/Founder Mark Zuckerberg close behind at 50-1, and NBA team owner Mark Cuban at 80-1.

Even Microsoft founder Bill Gates and rapper Kanye West are “candidates” in Vegas, with 125-1 odds. Even the outrageous LaVar Ball got a mention at 250-1.

When I look at these odds though, I can’t help feel a little sad for lifelong politicians like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz … men who were at one time, legitimate candidates for their party’s presidential nomination.

Today, Vegas claims they have as much chance at winning the next presidential election at 100-1 as actor/entertainers Will Smith, George Clooney, Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart who collectively, have never spent one moment in a government position nor expressed any desire to be president of anything, ever.

That has to be a downer when assessing your political career.

I write this column slightly out of bemusement but also for posterity as I can’t help but wonder what the odds were four years ago on Trump winning a first term. I can tell you today the odds are 100-1 his daughter, Ivanka, wins in 2020.

Interestingly enough, you can also place a wager on whether Mr. Trump actually finishes that first term in office. Basically, the odds are 2.5-1 that he does, which seems kind of low to me.

While those odds may be slightly skewed, it makes a little more sense to me considering they are twice as good (and thus likely to occur) than the Vikings beating Green Bay out for the NFC North title!

But that’s a column for a few months from now.

——

Gregory Orear is the publisher of The Journal. His award-winning weekly column, “What’s Going On,” has been published in four newspapers in three states for more than 20 years. He can be contacted at gorear@nujournal.com.

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