FAIRMONT – After the relatively pleasant winter last year, the season is projected to return to regularly cold temperatures and precipitation levels.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Bill Borghoff said current projections show this winter has a chance to be colder and wetter than normal due to La Nina conditions.

“We’ll probably be a degree or two below normal overall,” he said. “Snow is favored to be above average. We usually average 50 inches of snow per winter, and we could get around 50-65 inches depending on how active it is.”

October has been a fall mix of warm and cold temperatures, with frost some nights and hot sunshine other days. Borghoff said a big indicator of how bad this winter will get is how November turns out.

“November has been trending drier and warmer the last few years,” he said. “If it is cold and snowy, that’ll confirm this is a typical winter. If we have a warm November, we lose a month of typical winter conditions.”

Predictions like these come from global flow patterns monitored over several months. Borghoff said they also have weather models that update predictions daily for how much above or below normal temperatures and precipitation could be. He said the winter we get could still slightly deviate from these predictions.

“For example, if the jet stream doesn’t dip as far south as often as we think, we’ll have fewer colder outbreaks to contend with which will increase the average temperatures,” Borghoff said.

Even so, Borghoff said it’s unlikely the upcoming season is much different from what a typical Minnesota winter looks and feels like.

“We had a really cold snap one time last January,” he said. “This winter that could happen every couple of weeks. Last year was particularly anomalous, warmest winter on record by around two degrees.”

The winter season is a particularly popular one for traveling with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years. Checking forecasts along travel routes are a great way to keep safe during the winter.

“Keep up with forecasts, especially if you are going to travel,” Borghoff said. “Have a winter survival kit, lots of blankets, water. Usually, blizzards aren’t a surprise anymore, but if you’re traveling long distances there could be surprises if one isn’t cautious.”

For more forecast information, visit the National Weather Service at https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps/and https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/.