The conclave to elect a new pope begins today, but there is no exact science to predict when the 133 cardinals will reach a decision.

Aldean Hendrickson, Director of the Office of the Tribunal for the New Ulm Diocese said once the cardinals enter the doors of the Sistine Chapel, they are sworn to secrecy. In between votes, individual cardinals cannot conduct interviews to indicate which way the conclave is leaning.

The only indication of how the conclave is proceeding are smoke signals. Black smoke means the cardinals have cast their votes without anyone garnering the necessary two-thirds majority. White smoke means the Catholic Church has a new pope.

In theory, the conclave could elected a new pope as soon as Wednesday night. The cardinals may decide to cast their first ballot the first evening. The 2005 conclave that elected Pope Benedict and the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis all chose to take a preliminary vote the first night; however neither vote resulted in a two-thirds majority.

After the first day of the conclave, cardinals will hold four rounds of voting each day.

Pope Francis was elected on the fifth ballot, Benedict XVI was elected on the fourth ballot and John Paul II was elected on the eighth ballot. The longest papal conclave in history was in the 13th century. It took 1,006 days to elect Pope Clement IV’s successor, Gregory X.

How long it will take to select the pope and who are the likely candidates are up in the air.

“It depends on who you talk to,” Hendrickson said “but there does not seem to be a solid consensus.”

Hendrickson said most of the cardinals voting in the conclave were chosen by Pope Francis. In appointing cardinals, Francis selected them from all around the world. Some of the cardinals appointed were in places that did not necessarily have a cardinal before.

Hendrickson said one of the effects of having cardinals from around the world is many don’t know each other as they would have in previous conclaves. However, Hendrickson said he did not know how this would affect the vote. Voting could take longer because the cardinals are not familiar with each other, or it could be quicker.

“It could go either way,” he said.

Hendrickson said it also was not clear if the cardinals were likely to pick a pope who issimilar to Pope Francis. Hendrickson said even though most of the cardinals were picked by Francis, he chose them to increase representation in certain areas. The cardinals might not be in lock-step with Francis and are not necessarily of like minds.

Hendrickson believed it was unlikely a pope would be selected on the first day, but he doubted it would be drawn out. He said the biggest factor would be their faith.

“As Catholics, the Holy Spirit is involved,” Hendrickson said. “They will be doing more praying than voting.”

If a vote takes place May 7, smoke can expected to be seen in St. Peter’s Square just after 7 p.m. (noon) in New Ulm.