The First Months

Brown County went into lockdown in mid-March. From the beginning, the Minnesota Department of Health and Brown County Public Health kept track of all confirmed COVID cases in Brown County.

The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brown County was Martin Luther College President Mark Zarling. He was diagnosed with the disease in the last week of March. He had traveled to Seattle Washington earlier in the year and it was assumed he contracted the virus there.

By April 1, there were two confirmed cases. On April 7, 2020 The Journal ran a COVID-19 case count for the first time. The numbers were taken directly from the Minnesota Department of Health. On that day, Brown County had five confirmed cases. This first case count box did not include COVID death numbers because no deaths had been reported in the region. Minnesota had only recorded 30 COVID deaths statewide.

By the end of April, Brown County would record its first COVID-related death. It was one of the first COVID deaths reported in the region. Blue Earth, Redwood, Renville, Sibley and Watonwan were all reporting zero COVID deaths. Nicollet County had reported two COVID deaths at that time.

In April and May, Brown County recorded less than ten COVID-19 cases a month. Only eight confirmed cases were reported in April and only seven confirmed cases in May.

In looking at these early low COVID numbers it is important to realize this only counts the lab-confirmed cases. The number of people in the county who were infected in April and May was likely higher.

“We were not testing everyone,” Brown County Public Health Director Karen Moritz said. “There were not enough testing supplies at that time.”

If one person in a family tested positive the other family members would not necessarily be tested, even if they were showing systems. The entire family would simply quarantine together.

Moritz said the early figures on COVID were not representative of infection spread and it was hard to know what the true infection rate was in the first months.

In addition, there is a high range of COVID symptoms and many are asymptomatic, showing no symptoms at all. People who have no symptoms of COVID are unlikely to test for the virus.

Despite the incomplete data, Public Health does believe virus spread was relatively low in April and May. Moritz said Minnesota was under a stay-at-home order for most of the first few months. Bars and restaurants were closed. Schools went to distance-learning. These restrictions likely prevented an early spike in case numbers.

“Flatten the curve” was a common phrase in the first months of the pandemic. The goal was to give the healthcare providers time to prepare for an eventual surge and Brown County was successful in this effort.

COVID cases remained static into June, with no surges and only two COVID-related deaths. Neighboring Nicollet County had five times the case rate and 12 COVID deaths within the same period.

Moritz said this was because Brown County locked down nursing homes early and prevented the spread. Across Minnesota, COVID deaths were common in nursing homes. Many of Nicollet County’s early deaths occurred in the nursing home. It would be months before the infection penetrated Brown County’s nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

Summer Months

In June 2020, there was an uptick with 11 confirmed COVID cases. By the end of the month, Minnesota would lift some COVID-19 regulations allowing bars and restaurants to open with partial capacity. For the first time in months, people were able to gather.

“As we opened up we expected more cases,” Moritz said. Public Health was optimistic there would be less transmission of the virus in an outdoor setting. The summer months allowed for outdoor options. Moritz said the summer also had fewer chances for public gathers. There are not as many major holidays. Fourth of July was the one exception and the few celebrations were outside.

With greater availability of personal protection equipment, people were able to further minimize virus spread and used caution.

There was a jump in cases by July. Monthly cases went from 11 to 52. In August there were 47 cases. Overall case numbers increase in the summer, but the death rate remained unchanged. No COVID deaths were reported in Brown County during the summer.

The Fall

September saw an increase to 73 new cases, bringing Brown County’s total to 198 cases.

Brown County was managing the pandemic, but as people began to gather more and indoor activities increased the county started to see surge numbers.

In October, case numbers reached 167 and a third COVID death. This was double the numbers seen in September. Moritz said the county started to see weddings, showers and other large celebrations. These events were the main reason for spreading the virus.

Also, school was back in session. Moritz said there was a minimal transmission of the virus in the schools, but students were contracting the virus from social groups outside of school. There was also some spread through fall sports.

By Halloween, Brown County had a total of 365 confirmed COVID cases and three deaths in the six months since the pandemic started. By the end of November, these figures would double.

To date, November saw the highest increase in COVID-19 cases. Brown County reported 1,041 new COVID cases. The number of COVID deaths climbed from three to 15. Approximately 40% of all Brown County COVID cases were reported in November. There were days in which the case numbers increased by 70 or more. Longterm care facilities that had successfully kept COVID out of their residence community saw their first cases.

Moritz said it was a combination of several things that led to the surge, but it started with Halloween. Social gatherings for this holiday were responsible for many of the infections seen in early November. Brown County started to see the consequences of other large celebrations held in October. In addition, people gathered indoors because of the cooler weather.

The November surge was not unique to Brown County. All of Minnesota experience the increase. Statewide Minnesota had reached 200,000 COVID cases and approximately 3,000 deaths in seven months.

By Nov. 13, Gov. Tim Walz issued an Executive Order limiting indoor capacity at events. However, a week a later this Executive Order was amended to prohibit indoor service at bars and restaurants and to close gyms and fitness centers.

Around the same time, the New Ulm public school went back to distance learning as a teacher shortage made it difficult to hold classes.

Winter

The virus spread halted in December. Case numbers were still relatively high, but the county saw some relief from the November surge.

Moritz said people were more careful around Thanksgiving. There was no huge case spike because of this holiday. December did report the second-highest case numbers at 586, but also reported the highest death toll from COVID with 17. Moritz said many of the December deaths were from people who became sick in November.

November and December were the worst months of the virus in Brown County with 60% of all COVID cases and 75% of all COVID deaths occurring in these two months. By the end of 2020, Brown County reported 1,992 confirmed cases and 32 COVID deaths.

December was also the start of vaccination efforts in the county. New Ulm Medical Center had received a supply of the Pfizer vaccine and began inoculation of staff before the Christmas holiday. In December, 340 doses of the vaccine were administered in Brown County.

New Year

In January 2021, there were 210 confirmed COVID cases and three deaths in the county. This was significantly lower than November and December, numbers but still relatively high. COVD numbers flatlined in February with 211 new cases and two deaths.

Moritz said the further decline is a reflection of the restrictions ordered by Gov. Walz.

“Regardless of how people feel about the restriction we do better when things are closed,” she said.

Every month since the vaccines were released, Brown County has seen an uptick in doses. There were 2,133 doses of vaccine administered in January and another 4,308 doses given in February.

By late February, the vaccines were being made available to people 65 years and older. Heading into March, the majority of seniors in Brown County have received at least the first one dose of the vaccine.

As of the one-year anniversary of the start of the pandemic, Brown County has reported 2,577 cases of COVID and 39 COVID deaths. Over 10% of Brown County residents have contracted COVID in the last year. That is one out of every 10 people.

Going forward, the COVID vaccines will be made more available to residents. Over 14% of Brown County has completed the vaccine series with 28% receiving at least the first dose.

It’s Not Over

The pandemic is not over. Despite the steady increase of vaccines, neither Brown County nor Minnesota has reached vaccination levels that would bring an end to the pandemic.

Moritz said for the county to reach immunity levels, at least 70% of the population needs to be inoculated with the vaccine. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccine both require two shots with four weeks between shots. The country is still months away from reaching the 70% threshold, and people are letting their guard down prematurely.

“If people feel it is better they will be less vigilant,” Moritz said. She worries people are not taking mitigation seriously. Public Health is starting to see increased clusters of infections. Investigations are finding unmasked social gathers. Along with relaxed regulations, March is experiencing a case surge with 131 COVID cases in the first half of the month. If this trend continues March 2021 could be the third-worst month for COVID infections in Brown County.

The future of the pandemic is impossible to predict with many variables. The vaccine supply could increase in the weeks ahead, but the shadow of COVID will continue to linger.

Trends

Brown County posted a 4% test positivity rate from March 2-16, which was called “relatively low,” according to a national study by the New York Times.

Redwood County showed a 2% test positivity rate over that period. Following were Sibley County 4%, Nicollet and Renville County 4%, and Watonwan County 7%.

Brown, Redwood and Sibley County test positivity rates suggest testing capacity is meeting current demand.

In addition, the study suggested that test positivity rates in Nicollet, Renville and Watonwan Counties suggest cases may be undercounted.

Developing advice with experts at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Resolve to Save Lifes, an Initiative on Vital Strategies, the study advised unvaccinated individuals they may need to take extra precautions if they or someone in their household are older or has other COVID risk factors:

• Avoid non-essential travel and events with more than a handful of people.

• Outdoor activities can be a good substitute.

• Protect yourself at work and school.

• Get medical care if you need it.

• Take important precautions all the time.

The study read that if you are fully vaccinated, you may choose to follow Centers for Disease Control recommendations since your risk of getting sick is much lower, but you should be mindful that it may still be possible for you to transmit COVID to others.

Journal Graphics by Travis Rosenau

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