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Are minds made up?

September 6, 2012
The Journal

National political conventions, criticized in recent years for being meaningless, expensive rubber stamp for preordained presidential nominations, could usually be counted on for one thing. They provided a "bounce" for the candidates, a quick rise in the polls that signalled voters had been watching and liked what they saw.

But Mitt Romney's Gallup Poll numbers stayed the same after last week's Republican National Convention. He and President Barack Obama held steady at around 46 or 47 percent.

Gallup analysts have a few theories. One was that voters had gotten to know Romney already through the long primary season and hadn't heard anything new and exciting at the convention. Another was that the response reflected other polls showing a muted response to Romney's speech at the convention. In other words, he hadn't connected. Others felt that people have largely made up their minds on who they will vote fore, with fewer undecideds than usual.

We'll be interested to see what kind of "bounce" Obama gets after the Democratic National Convention this week. We have a feeling that a lot of people have their mind made up about Obama as well.

If so, this will be a close race, and an expensive one. With Super PAC money flowing freely, and fewer undecideds than usual, we will paraphrase Winston Churchill and say never has so much been spent to convince so few.



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