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NOAA forecasts warmer than average winter

College Park, MD — More of the United States will experience more warmer-than-average than colder-than-average temperatures this winter, according to a National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report.

In addition, there’s a 70 to 75 percent chance, El Nino (unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific) will develop this year, according to NOAA Climate Prediction Center Deputy Director Mike Halpert.

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early Winter,” Halpert said. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern U.S., and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

The forecast stated that no part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

“I think it’ll be mild and dry here,” said Sleepy Eye Weather Observer Brad Sellner. “I think with the El Nino pattern, we’re getting a lot of our cold weather now. It’ll flip around and we’ll get warmer and dryer-than-average temperatures and precipitation later on.”

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the Northern Plains and Rockies, the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in Arizona and New Mexico, southern Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and Central Plains.

The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.

For more information, visit https://earthsky.org/earth/winter-2018-2018-weather-outlook-for-us and http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa/gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Fritz Busch can be emailed at fbusch@nujournal.com.

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